8 elm condos.Where is the worst global real estate bubble? New Zealand and Canada are the two most unsustainable countries in the real estate market, with serious bubbles.Please Visit: 8 elm condos to Get Your VVIP Registration Today!
Bloomberg economist Niraj Shah uses a self-designed real estate bubble dashboard (Housing Bubble Dashboard) to assess the state of the real estate market in each country, which includes four indicators, namely, price-to-rent ratio, price-to-income ratio, real house prices and household loan-to-GDP ratio.
New Zealand and Canada topped the list of “most unsustainable real estate markets”, according to the assessment. According to the study, these two countries have the highest price-to-income ratio, followed by Australia, the United Kingdom, Norway and Sweden.
According to Shah, New Zealand has the highest price-to-rent ratio in the world and the highest price-to-income ratio, reaching 196.8 and 156.8 respectively, while real house prices in Canada are the highest in the world. Total household loans accounted for 100.7% of GDP in Canada, 94% in New Zealand, 76.3% in the United States and 120.3% in Australia.
Canadian real estate website Better Dwelling recently released a report on the rise in house prices in the United States and Canada. The report shows that house prices in several major Canadian cities have experienced explosive growth compared with the major bubble cities in the United States since 2000. In the year to March 2019, real estate prices in Toronto rose 239.9 per cent from a year earlier; prices in Montreal rose 189 per cent; and the most exaggerated was Vancouver, where prices soared by 315 per cent.
Toronto is one of the cities with the fastest growth in real estate prices. From January 2000 to March 2019, house prices in Toronto rose 33.67% higher than Los Angeles, 45.27% higher than San Francisco, 61.01% higher than Seattle and 133.39% higher than New York.
The Better Dwelling report also points out that Canada is far more dependent on real estate than the United States. At its peak in 2006, residential investment accounted for about 8% of Canada’s GDP, twice that of the United States.
The risk of a crisis in the real estate market is increasing as global economic growth slows and investment declines, the Oxford Institute for Economics (Oxford Economics) said in a research paper released in early July. Real estate bubbles and investment heat vary across major countries around the world, and if the real estate market falls into the doldrums again, house prices and gross domestic product (GDP) in countries with larger bubbles and hotter temperatures, such as Norway, Sweden, Finland, Denmark, New Zealand, Australia, the United Kingdom and Canada, will be hit hard.
The Oxford Institute of Economics estimates that GDP in these countries will fall by 0.5 per cent and 0.7 per cent in a mild recession; if the crisis is serious enough to cause panic selling, GDP will grow by 1.5 per cent.
According to the report, among the OECD countries, New Zealand, Canada, Sweden and Norway are at the highest risk of the property market, followed by Australia, the United Kingdom and Denmark, while Portugal, Japan and Italy are the least risky. In addition, countries with large economies such as the United States and Germany are at lower risk of being hit.
Bloomberg says some countries have taken action to contain the housing bubble. The Canadian government has imposed a tax on foreign buyers, while New Zealand has banned overseas purchases. The main challenge facing these countries now is whether prices will continue to rise as the Federal Reserve and other central banks prepare to cut interest rates.
At a congressional hearing last week, Federal Reserve Chairman Colin Powell was almost certain to cut interest rates this month for the first time in a decade.
“A new round of global monetary easing could fuel the housing bubble, and while central banks want to avoid a global recession, loose monetary policy could sow the seeds of another crisis,” Niraj Shah said.