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Economists predict that house prices in hot areas will fall by 10% to 20% in the second half of this year as the central bank of Canada continues to raise interest rates sharply in June.
Average house prices across the country are largely affected by sales in Greater Vancouver, the most active and expensive housing market in Canada.
If these two markets are excluded from the calculation of April 2022, the national average price will fall by $138000.
National home sales fell 12.6 per cent in April, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA). Home sales fell 25.7% in April compared with last year.
The number of newly listed houses decreased by 2.2% month-on-month.
“after record years, the property market in many parts of Canada has cooled sharply in the past two months, related to soaring interest rates and buyer fatigue,” Jill Oudil, chairman of CREA, said in a statement.
For buyers, this slowdown could mean more time to consider options in the market. For sellers, this may require a return to more traditional marketing strategies. Of course, there are significant regional differences. ”
Shaun Cathcart, senior economist at CREA, said: “the market expects to continue to tighten policy at a fairly rapid pace for the rest of the year, and fixed mortgage rates have taken this into account. It is for this reason that these numbers have been rising since the beginning of 2021, so why has the market not reacted significantly until now? This may be because the typical five-year fixed interest rate rises from a low range of 3% to a low range of 4% in a month’s time. The stress test is 5.25% or the higher level of contract interest rate plus 2%.
For fixed-rate borrowers, the stress test has just risen from 5.25% to 6%, close to an increase of 1% a month! The actions of the Bank of Canada will also begin to affect floating rates. ”
House prices nationwide hit a record $816000 in February and have fallen for two months in a row. The average price was $796000 in March and fell another 6% in April, which is usually a strong month for the real estate market.
CREA says the average price figure can be misleading because high house prices and sales in big cities such as Vancouver can easily distort the average. The association highlights another data called the House Price Index (House Price Index,HPI), which is adjusted according to the number and type of homes sold, so it can better measure the market.
HPI fell 0.6% to $866700 in April, the first monthly decline in nearly two years. On a year-on-year basis, HPI still rose 23.8 per cent in April from a year earlier.
Borrowing costs have doubled over the past year, causing the market to slow. Mortgage rates are expected to rise, the Bank of Canada (Bank of Canada) in response to runaway inflation, the next rate announcement is scheduled for June 1, the market is expected to raise interest rates by 50 basis points.
Analysts expect higher borrowing costs to lead to sharp falls in house prices in some of the hottest markets, such as southern Ontario cities and the suburbs of Toronto.
Rishi Sondhi, an economist at TD Bank, expects the national average house price to fall by double digits from March to December this year. Robert Kavcic, a senior economist at BMO, expects the house price index to fall by 10 to 20 per cent in some areas.