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With mortgage rates rising, house prices falling and transactions plummeting, the Canadian real estate market is accelerating to de-bubble. But professionals say the pain of this cooling may not spread evenly to all regions and different market segments.
In the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic, Canada’s urban real estate market was snubbed as large numbers of buyers fled to the suburbs and outer suburbs, pushing the suburban market to an all-time high, but in the end, the urban market may be more resistant to headwinds.
As a result, the coming months could provide the first real opportunity for buyers targeting urban centres such as Vancouver and Toronto and make it more attractive to invest in emerging cities such as Calgary and Halifax.
Although interest rates have risen, they are still at historic lows. The fall in house prices has brought a rare bargain-hunting opportunity. Six months ago, some houses were even sold within a day, and prices rose to unsustainable levels. Now that the market is becoming more balanced, house prices will rise again in 2023.
In Toronto, employees return to high-rise office buildings in the city center. There was heavy traffic on the road and the streets were crowded with people. All this shows that people are beginning to return to the city.
According to a report released by the bank of Canada in July, house prices in the surging suburbs soared 46% between 2019 and 2021, while prices in the heart of the city rose by an average of only 19.5% during that period.
During the outbreak, three factors contributed to unprecedented demand in the suburban market, including ample liquidity, buyers’ preference for a shift to comfortable mansions and convenient telecommuting policies. Today, interest rates continue to rise and mortgage stress tests are more stringent. A bigger house is obviously much more expensive.
Some experts warned that the Canadian real estate market broke records at an “alarming rate” during the outbreak. Canada’s MLS house price index (Canadian MLS Home Price Index) surged by a record 25.3 per cent in 2021 compared with the same period in 2020. In Toronto, the country’s largest metropolitan area, average house prices rose 28.3% year-on-year over the same period. As of the end of 2021, the benchmark MLS price for all residential properties in the greater Vancouver metropolitan area was C $1.23 million (US $89,672), up 17.3 per cent from December 2020.
