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“We believe that excessive burdens, especially in Toronto and Vancouver, and macroprudential measures to limit the number of borrowers eligible for home loans will continue to limit the rise in house prices,” Fitch analyst Susan Hosterman wrote. “House price growth in both cities is limited by state lending restrictions and local home purchase restrictions.”
Fitch’s expectations for house price growth are slightly more pessimistic than real estate agents such as Royal LePage. Mr Lipec predicts that the price of two-story detached homes will rise 3.1 per cent next year as millennials in Montreal, Ottawa and Toronto move from urban apartments to the suburbs.
Fitch is particularly concerned with purchasing power, as average household debt has reached 177% of disposable income this year. Fitch expects the central bank of Canada (Bank of Canada) to leave interest rates unchanged at 1.75 per cent through next year, but to rise to 2 per cent by 2021, which could strain Canadians’ solvency.
Affordability may be the biggest pressure on Toronto and Vancouver, where the average price of a two-story detached house will rise to 1.46 million yuan next year, the highest in Canada, Royal LePage said.