As 2025 heads into its final months, Canada’s housing markets are showing signs of revived activity — a resurgence of buyer interest after a year marked by economic uncertainty and cautious consumer behavior. According to a recent report by RBC Economics, many regions across the country recorded notable increases in home resale activity during November, indicating that demand may be quietly rebounding.
In several markets, such as in the Prairies, some parts of Quebec, and certain western cities, resales climbed by more than 5% compared to October. But the story is uneven — not all regions are benefiting equally from this uptick.
Regional Divergence: Where Activity Rises — Where It Lags
Strongest Gains Outside Ontario & B.C.
- In cities like Calgary, Edmonton, Saskatchewan’s Regina and Saskatoon, Winnipeg and many Prairie and Quebec markets, resale activity increased substantially in November, reflecting renewed interest among buyers.
- Some of these areas saw price stability or modest gains, supported by relatively balanced supply and demand compared with overheated markets.
Cooling in Major Urban Centres — Southern Ontario in Focus
- Meanwhile, major metro areas like Greater Toronto Area (Toronto and surroundings) and its neighbour Hamilton, Ontario continued to experience weak performance. In those regions, inventories remain high, demand remains sluggish, and prices continue to trend downward — drag factors for market recovery.
- In Toronto, activity remains nearly 25% below pre-pandemic norms even if there was a small month-to-month bump. The broader sentiment reflects affordability challenges, economic uncertainty, and reluctance among buyers to re‑enter while supply remains ample.
Mixed Recovery in Other Big Cities
- Areas such as Montreal, Quebec have seen gradual improvement: resale activity ticked up slightly in November, and lower new‑listing trends have helped stabilize supply — giving buyers some confidence.
- On the other hand, in high‑cost cities like Vancouver, British Columbia, while there was a modest uptick in resales, the market remains far from “hot.” Inventory is high, affordability remains problematic for many buyers, and overall activity is still well below long-term averages.
What’s Driving the Uptick — And What’s Holding Back
Several factors appear to be nudging parts of the market back toward activity:
- Lower interest rates — Easing borrowing costs have gradually improved affordability, making it more feasible for buyers to consider jumping back into the market.
- Improved inventory levels — After a tight supply in previous years, many regions now offer the widest selection of homes in a long time, giving buyers more options and greater negotiating power.
- Diverse regional demand — Outside major metropolitan areas where affordability remains strained, smaller cities or regions tend to benefit as more modest home prices and living costs attract buyers seeking value.
However — significant headwinds remain:
- Affordability challenges, especially in hot markets — Cities like Toronto and Vancouver still struggle with high prices relative to incomes, making it difficult for many would‑be buyers to commit.
- Uneven economic recovery and job‑market uncertainty — Economic slowdown, employment risks, and broader macroeconomic conditions discourage aggressive home‑buying in many regions.
- Regional divergence: some areas bounce back faster, others lag — As data shows, there’s no uniform national recovery; markets remain highly local, influenced by regional economics, supply and demand balance, and affordability constraints.
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What to Expect in Early 2026 — Forecast & Outlook
According to RBC’s housing outlook, the rebound could continue in 2026 — but likely at a gradual, uneven pace.
- Nationally, resale transactions may rise modestly as buyers respond to lower borrowing costs and improved supply-demand balance.
- Some regions — especially outside major metros — are expected to see relatively stable demand and moderate price appreciation, given lower cost-of-living and better affordability.
- In high-inventory, affordability‑stressed markets (e.g. Toronto, Vancouver), price pressure may continue — especially for condos and smaller home types — until supply tightens or economic conditions improve substantially.
Overall, RBC suggests the market is shifting toward more normalized conditions: less boom, but more stability — and possibly a reopening window for buyers with realistic expectations.
What This Means for Homebuyers & Sellers
- For buyers in less‑expensive cities or regions outside major metros, now might be one of the best times in years to purchase — improved supply and stable demand give leverage and better negotiating power.
- For prospective buyers in major metros, caution is still warranted: despite some uptick in activity, affordability constraints and high inventory suggest that price growth may remain muted. Realistic price expectations and careful financial planning are still crucial.
- For sellers, especially in oversupplied markets, competition remains stiff. Overpricing or unrealistic expectations may result in longer time on market — pricing competitively may be key to closing deals.
- For investors and analysts, the divergence across regions underscores the importance of local factors (job market, inventory, regional demand) rather than national trends alone when evaluating real‑estate opportunities.
