The Canadian housing market is demonstrating remarkable resilience in a momentum, signaling that buyer activity is returning after a period of uncertainty. According to the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), Canadian home sales are up $5\%$ (specifically $5.2\%$) in September 2025 compared to a year earlier, marking the most active September for the national market since 2021.
This solid performance has led CREA to significantly upgrade its 2025 sales forecast and project a robust rebound for 2026. The core driver is the release of pent-up demand, fueled by easing interest rates and a general stabilization of market conditions. This sets the stage for a period of sustained activity heading into the final quarter of the year and beyond.
1. The September Performance: Volume and Value
While national sales showed a minor month-over-month dip (down $1.7\%$ from August), the year-over-year jump of $5.2\%$ confirms a strong, accelerating trend in transactions since March 2025.
Key Sales and Price Data: September 2025
| Metric | September 2025 Figure | Annual Change (YoY) | Notes |
| Total Home Sales | 39,700 transactions | $+5.2\%$ | Highest September volume since 2021. |
| National Average Price | $\$676,154$ | $+0.7\%$ | Reflects the sales mix, up slightly YoY. |
| MLS® HPI Benchmark Price | $\sim \$676,000$ | $-3.4\%$ | Price of a “typical” home, down due to corrections in Ontario/BC. |
| Active Listings | 199,772 properties | $+7.5\%$ | Supply is high, providing buyer choice. |
The most significant takeaway is the increase in transaction volume. As CREA Senior Economist Shaun Cathcart notes, “With three years of pent-up demand still out there and more normal interest rates finally here, the forecast continues to be for further upward momentum.”
2. Upgraded Forecasts: A Strong Finish to 2025
CREA’s updated outlook for 2025 reflects the market’s stronger-than-anticipated rebound, particularly given the economic uncertainties earlier in the year.
- Revised 2025 Sales: CREA now expects $473,093$ residential properties to be sold this year. This represents a decline of only $1.1\%$ from 2024, a significant improvement from the $3\%$ drop projected in the July forecast.
- Price Outlook: The national average home price is forecast to fall $1.4\%$ on an annual basis to $\$676,705$ in 2025. This national decline is primarily driven by price softening in the most expensive provinces, British Columbia and Ontario, which offsets moderate price gains of $4\%$ to $8\%$ seen across the Prairies and Atlantic Canada.
3. The 2026 Prediction: A Return to Half-Million Sales
The increased momentum heading into the fourth quarter underpins an optimistic CREA forecast 2026 for a full market recovery.
- 2026 Sales Rebound: National home sales are forecast to rebound sharply by $7.7\%$ to reach $509,479$ transactions. This marks the highest level of sales activity since the peak year of 2021 and brings the national total back above the critical half-million sales threshold.
- 2026 Price Growth: The national average home price is projected to increase by $3.2\%$ from 2025, reaching $\$698,622$ in 2026. This reinforces the expectation that the average price will stabilize and hover near the $\$700,000$ mark for the sixth consecutive year.
The key message from CREA is that the long-anticipated return of buyers was only delayed, not diminished, by the period of high-interest rates. The scene is now set for a robust recovery driven by the release of this long-accumulated pent-up demand.
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4. Market Dynamics: Balance and Negotiation
Despite the year-over-year sales boost, the market remains balanced, offering opportunities for buyers and sellers alike:
- Months of Inventory: This metric, which measures how long it would take to sell all available inventory, held at $4.4$ months nationally—below the long-term average of five months and indicating a stable market environment.
- Regional Divergence: While the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) and Winnipeg saw gains in September, other major markets like Vancouver, Calgary, and Montreal experienced a slight dip, showing that the recovery remains region-specific and uneven.
The combination of stabilizing prices (in most regions) and the availability of inventory continues to provide buyers with negotiating leverage, a healthy dynamic that supports the sustained housing market recovery.
