Strong Sales and Tightening Supply Propel GTA Housing Prices

House Mortgage

The housing market in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) is experiencing a clash between robust sales and a diminishing supply, resulting in an increase in property prices. In April 2023, the average price of a property in the Greater Toronto Area increased by 4% from the previous month to reach $1,153,269, the highest level since May 2022. This article investigates recent housing market trends in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), explores regional differences, analyzes property categories, and discusses the implications for purchasers and vendors.

After experiencing a 23-month nadir in January 2023, property prices in the Greater Toronto Area have risen significantly. Despite the fact that prices are still 8% lower than the previous year, this represents a significant improvement compared to the 15% year-over-year decline observed in March 2023. In addition, there was an increase in home sales in April, with 7,531 transactions, a 6% decrease compared to the same month last year. This positive trend followed the previous month’s significant 37% year-over-year sales decline.


As a consequence of a 38% decline in new listings compared to the previous year, the housing market in the Greater Toronto Area is experiencing a shrinking supply. This scarcity has increased the sales-to-new-listings ratio (SNLR) to 66%, exceeding both the previous month’s ratio of 61.5% and last year’s ratio of 43.5%. A SNLR greater than 60% indicates a seller’s market, which is characterized by increased customer competition due to limited inventory. This increased competition has the potential to drive up prices, which is advantageous for sellers but problematic for purchasers.

Within the Greater Toronto Area, the City of Toronto stands out for its rapid increase in property prices. The average home price in Toronto increased by 6% in April 2023 compared to the previous month, reaching $1,120,352. Brampton also experienced a 6% month-over-month increase, with an average property price of $1,088,311, outpacing Mississauga’s 4% price growth and $1,074,430 average price. This trend mirrors Brampton’s performance in the GTA housing market in 2022, when it outperformed neighboring areas.

While year-over-year price declines persist for all property classes, some categories have experienced notable month-over-month price increases. In April 2023, the average price of a detached property in the GTA was $1,489,258, representing an annual decline of 8.5% but a monthly increase of 1%. Semi-detached residences experienced the largest price decline year-over-year, 10%, with an average price of $1,135,599, up 4% from the previous month. The year-over-year price decline for freehold townhouses was 2%, but the month-over-month increase was 5.5%, approaching the territory of a positive year-over-year price change. Condo townhomes and condominiums experienced varying price fluctuations.

The decision to halt rate rises by the Bank of Canada may reduce borrowing costs and mortgage rates in Canada. This, coupled with renewed buyer demand, could support Toronto’s housing market’s ongoing recovery. However, the lack of new listings entering the market presents a potential obstacle that could drive up prices even further. Notably, the average sales price exceeded the average listing price.

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