The Canadian housing market is on the rise

Due to the fact that housing markets differ by location, kind, quality, and size, a decrease in the average housing price is not comparable to a decrease in the price of an average property, making it difficult to decide whether to buy or sell. Some statistics imply falling prices, but others indicate growing prices. Nevertheless, compared to February’s high levels of activity, the total number of home sales has decreased significantly, while the average price has decreased a little.

August sales in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) declined 34.2% year-over-year to 5,627 units, while the average house price rose 0.8%. However, TRREB’s quality-and size-adjusted Home Price Index (HPI) is a more realistic estimate of price fluctuations since smaller and, consequently, less costly homes may sell more often during slowdowns, thereby decreasing the average price.

The HPI increased 8.9% when compared to August of the previous year, contrary to media reports and analyst forecasts. What gives? It seems that a great deal depends on how measurements are developed. For instance, instead of comparing current sales and prices to those in the same period last year, the benchmark may be the highest level of sales activity in March 2022. Any comparison to the month of March will emphasize the declines. August sales in the Greater Toronto Area were down 48.3% from their peak in March, which was far worse than the 34.2% decline seen in August of the previous year. In the same way, the average prices in August, not taking into account quality or size, were 18% lower than the highest prices in February.

The answer depends on one’s perspective. If someone acquired a property in February at the peak of the housing market and is now seeking to sell it, they will undoubtedly face a substantial loss. However, such a group is often small. The majority of homebuyers remain in the same region for many months or longer. Even so, the significant decline in property sales compared to February’s peak belies the fact that sales of less expensive homes have climbed since then. Since February, the number of houses sold for less than $600,000 in the Greater Toronto Area has increased by around 70%, while the number of homes sold for more than $1.5 million has plummeted by 71%.

The shift from costly to less expensive homes contribute to the decline in average property values. However, the decline in average prices does not necessarily mean that the price of a typical or average home has declined at the same rate, given that average prices are determined for houses whose quality and size vary substantially over time. Despite these limitations, it is apparent that 2022’s sales volume will be much lower than 2018’s. Experts on the real estate market say that the drop is due to the sharp rise in mortgage rates, which quickly drove up the cost of borrowing money.

Extremely low mortgage rates from the previous year likely contributed to the extraordinary number of sales, as many families likely pushed their house purchase from 2022 to 2021, hence boosting sales. Property sales in the Greater Toronto Area increased by 28% year on year in 2021, reaching an all-time high of 121,642. In 2021, the Multiple Listing Service in Canada recorded about 100,000 more sales than the average annual figure over the previous decade. A percentage of this year’s sales were lost to the previous year, which contributed to the decline in revenues in 2022.

These intricate figures should help us understand that the Canadian home market is not in a state of collapse. The magnitude of price and sales swings is within the range projected. Since the average number of days, a house is on the market increased from 11 in February to 34 in August, buyers in the Greater Toronto Area may now take their time deciding. At least for the time being, the days of multiple bids and swift transactions are over, which is good news for homebuyers.

Sources: https://financialpost.com/real-estate/housing-market-not-melting-down-statistics
https://trreb.ca/index.php/news/news-releases/2011-borrowing-costs-and-housing-supply-impacting-the-gta-real-estate-market
https://moneywise.ca/mortgages/mortgage-rates?partner=pm_fp